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Club for Growth: New Polls Show Tight Toomey-Specter Race
Two new polls show a very tight race between Congressman Pat Toomey and
incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter in the GOP Pennsylvania primary race.
A Quinnipiac University poll, released yesterday, showed Specter's lead has
melted to just 49% to 44%, which is within the margin of error in the poll. The
same poll had a 15 percentage point lead earlier this month.
Last night a SurveyUSA poll was released by KDKA-TV, and it too showed a
six-point race, with Specter at 50% and Toomey at 44%.
Yesterday's Patriot News had a story by one of the top political writers in
Pennsylvania that appeared to cover the two campaigns' internal polling:
>>Statewide polls by supporters of both campaigns largely agree on two trends:
Toomey has closed much of the poll gap, and voters turned off by the attacks may
sit this one out.
Specter has a slight lead of 6 percentage points if voter turnout exceeds 33
percent, but the race becomes a dead heat as projected turnout declines toward
25 percent. <<
Some pundits are now even predicting a Toomey victory, including Fred Barnes of
Fox News Channel and The Weekly Standard as well as The Wall Street Journal
columnist Al Hunt.
Yesterday, Club for Growth PAC began a $400,000 TV ad buy criticizing Arlen
Specter's wasteful spending. You can view the ad on the Club's website at
www.clubforgrowth.org.
Today's NY Sun newspaper had a fascinating article reporting that "Two of the
top donors to an ostensibly Republican organization supporting Senator Specter
of Pennsylvania have significant ties to political committees that back
Democratic candidates." I've reprinted the article below.
>From the SurveyUSA poll:
>>In a Republican primary for U.S. Senate in PA today, 1 week to vote, Pat
Toomey is gaining ground among 'likely' voters & has lost no ground among
'certain' voters, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 479 'certain' voters
conducted 4/17 + 4/18 + 4/19.
Among 'certain' voters Toomey trails by 6 pts today; he trailed by 6 pts 2 weeks
ago but: among larger group of 'likely' voters, Toomey trails by 11 pts today,
52 to 41. 2 weeks ago, Toomey had trailed among likely voters by 17 pts, 50 to
33.
Specter leads by 22 pts among PA moderate GOPs, unchanged from 2 weeks ago.
Specter leads 2:1 among pro-choice; Toomey leads 5:4 among pro life. Specter
leads by 10 in Western PA, by 15 in Northeast PA, by 7 in Greater Philly. Toomey
tied in 'the T.'<<
To read the whole SurveyUSA Poll go to:
http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/PA040420gopsenprimary.pdf
To read the Quinnipiac University poll, go to:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x10961.xml
Best,
Steve
__________________
Steve Moore
President, Club for Growth
1776 K St NW Suite 300
Washington, DC 20006
www.ClubforGrowth.org
202-955-5500
If you ever want to remove email address information from your membership to the
Club for Growth, just reply to this email and ask that your email address be
removed.
TOP DONORS TO SPECTER ELECTION FUND HAVE DEMOCRATIC TIES
By JOSH GERSTEIN, Staff Reporter of the Sun
Two of the top donors to an ostensibly Republican organization supporting
Senator Specter of Pennsylvania have significant ties to political committees
that back Democratic candidates.
After being informed of the donors' political connections by The New York Sun,
the Main Street Individual Fund said yesterday that it may return one of the
donations.
The fund announced last week that it planned to spend $200,000 to shore up Mr.
Specter, who is facing a challenge from a conservative congressman, Pat Toomey,
in the April 27 Republican primary.
A spokeswoman for the organization, Sarah Chamberlain Resnick, told the Sun last
week that the group is comprised of "Rockefeller Republicans" loyal to President
Bush. However, records the group filed with the Internal Revenue Service cast
doubt on that assertion.
Last month, Main Street received $100,000, the largest donation in its history,
from a partner and managing director at Goldman, Sachs & Company, Dinakar Singh.
Mr. Singh, a 34-year-old Manhattan resident, is a registered Democrat and the
vast majority of his political giving has been directed to Democratic causes.
In 2002 and 2003, he gave a total of $100,000 to the Democratic Senatorial
Campaign Committee, according to Federal Election Commission data. Last June, he
gave $2,000 to the presidential campaign of Senator Kerry of Massachusetts, who
is now the apparent Democratic nominee.
Mr. Singh's only recorded donations to the GOP were $2,000 gifts to Mr.
Specter's campaign in 2002 and 2003. The Goldman Sachs executive did not return
phone calls to his home and office over the past two days seeking comment for
this story.
In an interview yesterday, Ms. Resnick said Mr. Singh is in the midst of an
ideological transformation. "What he tells me is he's widening his philosophy.
He's widening his views," she said. "He is not a hard-core Democrat by any
stretch... .He wants to support more Republicans," Ms. Resnick said, adding that
Mr. Singh recently made a donation to Mr. Bush's campaign.
Ms. Resnick described as an oversight her statement to the Sun last week that
all the recent donors to the Main Street fund were committed Republicans.
Referring to Mr. Singh's registration as a Democrat, she said, "I had forgotten
about that." She said the rest of fund's backers are "loyal, loyal Republicans."
The IRS records show that Main Street also received $10,000 from Robert Wilson,
a 77-year-old Manhattan investor. Mr. Wilson is a registered Republican who has
given financial support to both Democratic and Republican causes.
A well-known philanthropist, Mr. Wilson has made large donations to
environmental groups and historic preservation efforts. He is a member of the
board of directors of the Environmental Defense Fund and a trustee of the
Whitney Museum of American Art.
In March, Mr. Wilson gave $100,000 to Environment2004, an organization devoted
to ousting Mr. Bush in November. Environment2004's Web site says the group is
"solely focused on promoting environmental issues to defeat George Bush and his
Republican allies." "We bring a partisan and politically experienced voice to
the discussion," the site says. Mr. Wilson's gift is by far the largest donation
Environment2004 has reported.
An assistant to Mr. Wilson said he was out of town until Thursday and
unavailable for an interview.
Ms. Resnick called Mr. Wilson's donation to the Democratic environmental group
"bizarre." After a reporter read her some of the language on the Environment2004
site, she muttered, "Jesus."
Ms. Resnick stressed that Mr. Wilson is "clearly a Republican," adding, "I don't
know why he would fund an organization that antithetical to the president."
"I don't want to have to return his money but we may," she said.
The Main Street Individual Fund, founded in 2002, is a so-called 527
organization. The number refers to the section of the tax code under which such
groups are organized. The fund is an offshoot of a federal political action
committee, the Republican Main Street Partnership PAC. The group's Web site says
it is committed to electing "centrist Republicans."
In recent months, the Main Street group has dedicated itself to countering the
influence of the Club for Growth, another 527 entity. The Club for Growth has
made independent expenditures on behalf of Mr. Specter's opponent, Mr. Toomey,
and on behalf of other conservatives challenging moderate Republicans.
Told of the affiliations of the two Main Street donors, the president of Club
for Growth, Stephen Moore, said he was not surprised.
"It only confirms my suspicions that there really are no such thing as leftwing
Republicans. There are left-wing Democrats who want to make the Republican Party
left wing and that's why they're supporting Main Street," Mr. Moore said. He
accused the group of being "funded by people that are just trying to destroy the
party."
Last year, Main Street accepted $50,000 from billionaire investor George Soros.
He has since begun to plow millions of dollars into efforts to defeat Mr. Bush.
Ms. Resnick said Main Street was unaware of Mr. Soros's inclinations at the time
of his gift.
While most Democratic 527 organizations have taken pains to assert their
independence, Environment2004 boasts of its plans to coordinate its electoral
efforts with Mr. Kerry's campaign and other Democratic candidates.
"Due to its legal structure, Environment2004 will be able to work closely with
the Democratic Presidential nominee," says a response in the question-and-answer
section on the group's Web site.
Two prominent campaign finance lawyers said yesterday that the 527 organization
appears to be acting illegally.
"Their expenditures are by definition coordinated and illegal," said an attorney
for Republican National Committee, Benjamin Ginsberg. "At least pay lip service
to the law," he said.
A lawyer for the campaign finance reform advocacy group Democracy 21 said he was
also baffled by the environmental group's claim that it had the right to adopt a
joint strategy with the Kerry campaign.
"I don't know what they're talking about," said the attorney, Donald Simon. "If
they are coordinating, that's going to be a problem," he added.
The chairman of Environment2004, Frank Loy, said in an interview last night that
his group is a membership organization and as such enjoys more latitude under
the law.
"When we deal with our members we can actually have various forms of cooperation
with a campaign," said Mr. Loy, who was an undersecretary of state in the
Clinton administration. "I paid a lot of money for this advice and I hope it's
right," he added.
Unlike most other 527 organizations, Environment2004 will engage only in
grass-roots activity and will be taking out no advertising against Mr. Bush, Mr.
Loy said.
"Our plan is to do no paid ads," the former State Department official said.
Mr. Loy said he has heard complaints that his group is exploiting a loophole in
the 2002 campaign finance reform bill.
Mr. Loy said he knows Mr. Wilson and assumes that he opposes Mr. Bush's
reelection because of the administration's environmental policies.
According to Mr. Loy, Mr. Wilson "subscribes to many of the views of the
Republican Party," including its positions on taxes and government regulation.
Mr. Loy said Mr. Wilson believes that the GOP has abandoned its conservative
roots when it comes to the environment. "He feels the Republican Party has
failed him in this respect," Mr. Loy added.
Some of Mr. Singh's history as a political donor was reported last week by
National Review Online.
Mr. Specter's campaign has maintained that it has no connection with the Main
Street group and that the senator opposes the involvement of such organizations
in the Senate race. The campaign did not respond to a request for comment
yesterday.
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