Light Rail, Do The Math

By Guillermo Camoriano

 

TARC estimates that the cost to build the proposed 14 mile light rail route between the Gene Snyder and downtown Louisville will be $575 million.  TARC also estimates that there will be 16,000 riders by 2020.  Let’s check the numbers:

 

A) $575 million divided by 16,000 riders is $36,000 per rider, just to build the project.  This cost does not include operating costs or maintenance costs.

 

B) If we were to buy each of these riders a brand new 2002 model year car (such as Dodge Neon) and pay full price (I am sure we could negotiate some sort of discount based on purchasing 16,000 of these cars), we would pay $13,000 per car.

 

C) From the $36,000 per rider, subtract the $13,000 cost of the car.  That still leaves $23,000 per rider for buying gas. 

 

D) At US$ 1.50 for regular gas, this buys 15,330 gallons.

 

E) At 24 miles per gallon (city driving figures for a Neon), this equals 368,000 miles.

 

F) At 12,000 miles per year this is 30+ years of driving (note that 12,000 miles per year is a generous amount.  The light rail project is only 14 miles long.  If a rider takes it the full length twice a day, 5 days a week, 50 weeks per year, this only amounts to 7,000 miles per year.  At this rate of 7,000 miles per year, the rider could drive for 52+ years).

 

The above calculations assume that the cost estimates for construction are accurate (they are invariably optimistic) and that ridership figures by 2020 (19 years from now) are also accurate (also invariably optimistic).  One now understands why this is not an economically sound project in which investors are anxious to participate!

 

Why not give a new car and free gas for 30 years to these 16,000 potential light rail riders?  The overall cost to society would be less (though the benefits for the car giveaway proposal are much higher: owners could carpool with 4 to 5 people per car, potentially getting 80,000 people to their destinations instead of just 16,000 people; they could start using the cars immediately, no waiting 7 years before the first part of the light rail is finished; the cars are much more flexible in terms of where they can go), and the free cars are much more desirable.  I would venture to say that, throughout Jefferson County, one would be hard pressed to find a single individual who would turn down an offer of a free new car -- not exactly the same reception that light rail has in the community (despite politicians’ assertions to the contrary).