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Dear Joe, I was disappointed that the key statistic from my testimony before the State Senate Committee on the VET program did not make it into your story. You may not have been in attendance, may not have caught it, or may not think it was important-- but assuming/hoping it's one of the first two, I'll reproduce the point below. Since then, I've run simulations further into the future. These calculations indicate that the failure rate will fall by 58% in 2009 (at end of a new prospective 6-year contract) and by 70% in 2013 (at the end of a new prospective 10-year contract). And by the way, did you catch Sen. Shaughnessy's efforts the next day-- looking to regulate Jefferson County from Frankfort? That was a smile! ;-) Anyway, let me know if I can be of any assistance. Thanks, Eric

5.) Ending the VET program is really not a question of "if", but "when". By
definition, the VET program will become increasingly ineffective and
inefficient as time passes- given that the vehicle fleet will increasingly
be composed of fewer older-model-year cars which emit more pollution and
more recent-model-year cars which emit less pollution. For example, in 2004- the first full year when Sen. Seum's bill would go into effect- the current VET program would fail approximately 47% fewer cars and have a 71% increase in the cost of getting high-polluting cars fixed. Of course, these numbers will continue to increase as time passes. While the VET program was useful in its earlier years, advances in vehicle manufacturing technology will continue to render it increasingly obsolete over time.

Conclusion: It is perhaps an open question-- whether VET testing, in some
form, is appropriate in 2004- but given the long-term nature of VET
contracts, extending VET testing well beyond 2004 would seem to be bad for the economy, the environment, and the people of Kentucky. State governments in Florida and Minnesota have already ended their VET programs; Kentucky legislators are in a position to decide whether they will be toward the front of the pack on this reform or if they will lag behind.

D. Eric Schansberg
Professor of Economics
IUS